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The podcast for those who want to stay informed about financial markets, presented by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics at Kairos Partners SGR.
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4 JUN. 2025 · In this episode:
- The S&P 500 ended the month up more than 6%, marking its best May performance in over three decades. Since the April 8 lows, the index has risen 19%, largely driven by the “Magnificent Seven” and a record level of retail investor activity, which accounted for 36% of daily trading volumes.
- Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” narrowly passed in the House by a single vote, includes significant tax cuts funded by tariffs—though the expected revenue from those tariffs is increasingly uncertain. The bill risks triggering a surge in public debt and has already caused political turmoil, including the resignation of Elon Musk. Meanwhile, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum, aiming to counter the image of a yielding leader captured in the acronym “TACO” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”).
- The escalation in U.S.-China tensions—with potential tech sector restrictions and measures targeting Chinese students—adds to an increasingly fragile fiscal backdrop. Treasury yields are at their highest since 2007, the housing market is slowing, and CEO confidence has dropped to historic lows. Inflation remains under scrutiny amid a global environment of rising interest rates and growing systemic risks.
The recent rally has been fueled by forced repositioning and overly optimistic expectations, but it stands on shaky ground. In a climate of rising uncertainty around tariffs, debt, and geopolitics, this may be the time to reduce risk exposure, improve portfolio quality, and take advantage of low volatility to add protection.
20 MAY. 2025 · In this episode:
- Equity markets have posted an impressive rebound, driven by the temporary easing of U.S.-China tariffs, strategic agreements signed by Trump in the Middle East, and strong technical positioning, with buying flows from systematic funds and retail investors.
- The market is pricing in a highly optimistic scenario, with volatility at its lowest levels and compressed credit spreads. However, signs of weakness persist, such as still-elevated tariffs, slowing signals from hard data, and Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. from its AAA credit rating.
- High valuations and renewed bond appeal: With 30-year Treasury yields back at 5%, the comparison with the S&P 500 — trading at 22 times forward earnings — suggests a potential rotation into bonds, especially as the room for further equity gains appears to be narrowing.
Despite the apparent strength of the market recovery, the current euphoria seems driven more by political narrative than by sustainable fundamentals. With volatility at historic lows and positioning already elevated, adopting a more cautious and contrarian approach may prove wise while awaiting concrete confirmation of the agreements and the actual resilience of the economy.
6 MAY. 2025 · In this episode:
- April marked by record volatility: The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a 15% drawdown in just a few weeks, while bonds, currencies, and commodities experienced exceptional swings. Trading desks benefited from this environment, whereas traditional asset managers struggled.
- Macro signals remain mixed: Although some indicators normalized after "Liberation Day," the overall picture remains fragile. U.S. imports from China have collapsed, perceived inflation is on the rise, and corporate earnings are being revised downward. Mega-cap tech stocks are holding up, but recession risks remain elevated.
- Still defensive positioning, but beware of upside risk: Systematic funds and hedge funds remain cautious, but favorable seasonality, buyback activity, and renewed interest in AI could drive a surprise upside. Meanwhile, China continues to lose momentum, while Europe shows tentative signs of improvement thanks to German fiscal stimulus and a more dovish ECB.
Although the most acute phase of instability appears to be behind us, the lack of structural trade agreements and ongoing macro uncertainty call for caution: this is a time for selective investing, avoiding overcrowded trades and focusing on visibility and resilience.
22 ABR. 2025 · In this episode:
- Financial markets are searching for a new balance after one of the most volatile periods in recent decades. U.S. indices have dropped over 20% from their yearly highs before a partial rebound, while the Dollar Index has hit a three-year low and gold has surged nearly 30% year-to-date, confirming its role as a safe haven asset.
- Tariff tensions are fueling global uncertainty: the U.S. strategy, seen as controversial and disorganized, has triggered instability and strong reactions from China, Canada, and other trade partners. The risk is a steered global economic slowdown, with potential recessionary effects and a loss of credibility for the United States.
- The risk of a global recession is rising, now estimated around 60%, with early signs evident in surveys and declining imports. Central banks are responding in diverging ways: the ECB is cutting rates, while the Fed remains cautious amid political pressures and a lack of clear data.
In this environment dominated by geopolitical instability, high volatility, and mixed economic signals, selectivity and caution remain the most sensible strategies—while awaiting more concrete data and market stabilization.
1 ABR. 2025 · In this episode:
- The first quarter of the year closes with strong market turbulence, influenced by geopolitical events and new U.S. tariff policies. After a brief normalization, U.S. indices have resumed their decline. Europe is also down.
- The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration is already having negative effects on the real economy. The most affected sectors include automotive, food, and pharmaceuticals, with the risk of a trade war. U.S. inflation is expected to reach 3.3% over the next two years, while the trade deficit is rising sharply.
- The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer and business confidence at their lowest levels in over a decade. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate has dropped from +2% to -2.8% in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, social unrest is growing, and Trump's popularity is declining in the polls. In Europe, fundamentals remain stronger, with fiscal stimulus providing support to the markets.
The current scenario is marked by uncertainty and nervousness in the markets, with investors adopting a more cautious stance. While a technical rebound may occur in the short term, in the medium term, it will be crucial to monitor the evolution of macroeconomic data and trade tensions to understand real growth prospects.
18 MAR. 2025 · In this episode:
- The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices have undergone a significant correction, declining by 10% and 15%, respectively. While such movements are not unusual in market history, the speed of the downturn and the weakness of the Magnificent 7 have caught investors off guard. Rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%.
- The global market is showing a clear divergence: while U.S. indices are struggling, the Hang Seng is up 20%, and the DAX has outperformed the Nasdaq by 26%. Capital inflows into Europe have been significant in the early weeks of the year, driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the search for better economic prospects outside the United States.
- Three key events could shape markets in the coming months: the escalation of trade tensions with Trump’s tariff expansion, Germany’s tax reform, which could unlock €900 billion in investments, and efforts to redefine geopolitical balances in Ukraine. Additionally, investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its interest rate decisions.
Overall, the global market is experiencing a phase of high volatility and geographical rebalancing. While Europe and China are attracting new investments, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and macroeconomic risks call for a cautious and selective approach to seize the best opportunities.
4 MAR. 2025 · In this episode:
- The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with declines in consumer confidence, retail sales, and the housing sector. Gold is outperforming, while AI stocks face corrections—Nvidia dropped 7.7% after its quarterly results, signaling increased volatility.
- Europe continues to outperform the U.S., supported by capital inflows and signs of economic recovery. In Germany, Merz is pushing for tax reforms and a strengthening of common defense. A rebound in the German economy could benefit mid and small caps, especially if positive developments emerge regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
- The U.S. is imposing new tariffs, impacting the automotive industry and other sectors. Markets are assessing whether this is a negotiating tactic or a definitive measure. The idea of a potential “Trump put” to support equities is gaining traction, while investors remain cautious about global economic prospects.
Overall, markets are navigating a phase of heightened uncertainty. Europe is showing positive signals, but geopolitical tensions and U.S. weakness call for a targeted strategy to seize opportunities.
18 FEB. 2025 · In this episode:
- The Eurostoxx 50 has recorded a significant rise (+13% since December), outperforming the S&P 500 thanks to a broader and more diversified rally across sectors and stocks, supported by high trading volumes. However, liquidity remains a critical issue, especially for mid and small caps.
- The Mag7 are underperforming due to massive investments in artificial intelligence. The Tech and AI sectors are also expanding geographically, with China and Europe increasingly involved. This could remain a dominant theme in 2025.
- The market is influenced by developments such as negotiations between Trump and Putin on Ukraine reconstruction, the German elections, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Attention is focused on the EU’s potential response and the sustainability of growth in a highly volatile environment.
Overall, the European market is experiencing strong momentum, supported by favorable macroeconomic dynamics, expanding investments, and global trends like AI. However, geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of volatility require a cautious and selective approach to seize emerging opportunities effectively.
4 FEB. 2025 · In this episode:
- After months of passive outflows in the US, investors are rediscovering the European market. The Eurostoxx50 has had one of the best starts to the year in history, with broad-based gains. Macro and systematic funds, previously short on Europe, are now moderately overweight, while single-stock volatility is creating opportunities for stock pickers.
- The announcement of DeepSeek in China triggered a sell-off in the AI sector, with Nvidia losing $600 billion in a single day. The market later reacted more rationally, recognizing technological progress as positive and reaffirming the strong dominance of the US. The event highlighted the importance of diversification in AI investments.
- Earnings season is showing resilient numbers, especially in Europe, where 55% of companies have beaten expectations. The ECB has cut interest rates, while Powell remains cautious, awaiting Trump’s policy decisions. The market is pricing in at least three more rate cuts by year-end, as inflation cools down.
The start of the year confirms renewed interest in Europe, with growth prospects supported by reforms and investments. The environment remains volatile, but active investors may find opportunities by balancing risk and reward in an ever-evolving market.
21 ENE. 2025 · In this episode:
- Europe breaks out of a prolonged sideways phase, with the Eurostoxx 50 nearing historic highs and outperforming the S&P 500, marking one of the strongest starts in the past 20 years. The luxury sector is driving the rally, supported by high levels of short positions.
- In the United States, the "Mag7" are now weighing down the indices, with Apple and Nvidia experiencing significant declines. However, signs of change are emerging, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforming and greater market participation being observed.
- Markets remain focused on inflation and interest rates. The decline in yields and early positive earnings data provide encouraging signals, but the environment remains challenging due to high public debt and pressure from rising commodity prices.
With the start of Trump’s new presidential term in the United States and evolving geopolitical dialogues, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of significant change. It will be essential to adopt a selective and dynamic approach, seizing opportunities in undervalued areas like Europe while maintaining caution in the face of volatility.
The podcast for those who want to stay informed about financial markets, presented by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics at Kairos Partners SGR.
Información
| Autor | Kairos Partners SGR |
| Organización | Kairos Partners SGR |
| Categorías | Economía y empresa , Inversión , Noticias financieras |
| Página web | www.kairospartners.com |
| kairospod@gmail.com |
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